Case Study:

Design Day and Daily Demand Forecasting

Confidential Multi-Jurisdictional Gas LDC | 2024-2025

A confidential multi-jurisdictional natural gas distribution company operating across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeat regions engaged Atrium Economics to modernize its design-day and daily demand forecasting models. With diverse climatic zones and load patterns, the utility needed a unified analytical framework that could be customized for each division yet withstand regulatory scrutiny. Atrium developed transparent, statistically grounded models calibrated to historical weather and load data, incorporating temperature and wind sensitivity to more accurately estimate both theoretical design-day demand and daily consumption. The project delivered practical, regulator-ready tools that enhanced system planning, improved model defensibility, and aligned forecasting practices across jurisdictions.

CHALLENGE

Existing forecasting tools were outdated and inconsistent across divisions, making it difficult to demonstrate prudence and reliability in rate and supply filings. The client needed a unified, defensible approach that captured regional differences while meeting modern regulatory expectations.

EXPERTISE

Atrium designed fully documented Excel/VBA-based models using several years of temperature, wind, and load data. Statistical validation methods quantified load sensitivity to weather, supported by back-testing and best-practice guidance for selecting design criteria and defending results in proceedings.

OUTCOME

The engagement produced a transparent, reproducible forecasting framework used across multiple jurisdictions, improving confidence in system capacity planning and strengthening the utility’s ability to demonstrate sound methodology in future rate and supply filings.

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